Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $66,026$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,753.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(60,753.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,821$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,607.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,607.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,767$ on 2020-07-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,020$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,182.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(286,182.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,837$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,684.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $253,749$ on 2020-07-26

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $272,421$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(9.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244,622.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(244,622.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,432$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,793.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(27,793.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,613$ on 2020-07-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $246,118$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,337.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237,337.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,107$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,274.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,565$ on 2020-07-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,997$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(94,301.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,697$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,498.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,498.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,300$ on 2020-07-26

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $217,801$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196,755.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(196,755.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,195$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,301.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,301.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $106,661$ on 2020-07-26

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $53,005$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,412.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(49,412.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,159$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,068.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,068.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,650$ on 2020-07-26

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,881$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,295.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,295.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,764$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(514 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,709.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,709.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $753$ on 2020-07-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 76%
Portugal recovered 45%
Croatia recovered 32%
Russia recovered 19%
Armenia recovered 17%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,132$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 71.7)}}\) (asimptote \(66,914.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $534$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(63.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{598.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 74.0)}}\) (asimptote \(598.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,173$ on 2020-07-26

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,164$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(9.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,769.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(47,769.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,717$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(518 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,613.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,613.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,230$ on 2020-07-26

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,857$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(643 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 158.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,128.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(36.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $855$ on 2020-07-26

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $811,073$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{802,837.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.6)}}\) (asimptote \(802,837.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,249$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,407.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14,407.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $198,652$ on 2020-07-26